Developing a machine learning prediction algorithm for early differentiation of urosepsis from urinary tract infection

Abstract

Abstract Objectives Early recognition and timely intervention for urosepsis are key to reducing morbidity and mortality. Blood culture has low sensitivity, and a long turnaround time makes meeting the needs of clinical diagnosis difficult. This study aimed to use biomarkers to build a machine learning model for early prediction of urosepsis. Methods Through retrospective analysis, we screened 157 patients with urosepsis and 417 patients with urinary tract infection. Laboratory data of the study participants were collected, including data on biomarkers, such as procalcitonin, D-dimer, and C-reactive protein. We split the data into training (80%) and validation datasets (20%) and determined the average model prediction accuracy through cross-validation. Results In total, 26 variables were initially screened and 18 were statistically significant. The influence of the 18 variables was sorted using three ranking methods to further determine the best combination of variables. The Gini importance ranking method was found to be suitable for variable filtering. The accuracy rates of the six machine learning models in predicting urosepsis were all higher than 80%, and the performance of the artificial neural network (ANN) was the best among all. When the ANN included the eight biomarkers with the highest influence ranking, its model had the best prediction performance, with an accuracy rate of 92.9% and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.946. Conclusions Urosepsis can be predicted using only the top eight biomarkers determined by the ranking method. This data-driven predictive model will enable clinicians to make quick and accurate diagnoses.