A gravity model approach to understand the spread of pandemics: Evidence from the COVID-19 outbreak

Author:

Frimpong Albert Opoku1ORCID,Arhin Kwadwo2ORCID,Boachie Micheal Kofi34ORCID,Acheampong Kwame5ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Department of Banking and Finance, University of Professional Studies , Accra , Ghana

2. Department of Economics, Ghana Institute of Management and Public Administration , Accra , Ghana

3. Discipline of Public Health Medicine, School of Nursing and Public Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Howard College Campus , Durban 4001 , South Africa

4. SAMRC/Wits Centre for Health Economics and Decision Science – PRICELESS SA, School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand , Johannesburg 2193 , South Africa

5. Department of Accounting Studies Education, Akenten Appiah-Menka University of Skills Training and Entrepreneurial Development , Kumasi , Ghana

Abstract

Abstract Pandemics disrupt the global economy. Understanding the transmission pattern of pandemics informs policies to prevent or reduce the catastrophic consequences associated with pandemics. In this study, we applied the gravity model of trade to investigate the transmission pattern of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) across countries. The results suggest an outbreak in a country is likely to spread faster (slower) from a shrinking (booming) economy to a booming (shrinking) economy.

Publisher

Walter de Gruyter GmbH

Subject

General Earth and Planetary Sciences,General Environmental Science

Reference40 articles.

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2. WHO. WHO Coronavirus (COVID-19) Dashboard; 2020. https://covid19.who.int/.

3. MPH online (c. 2020). 10 of the worst pandemics in history. https://www.mphonline.org/worst-pandemics-in-history/.

4. De Groot G. The lessons we haven’t learned from the Spanish Flu of 1918. Japan Forward; 2020.

5. Sahin T. COVID-19 to shrink global economy by 3.2% in 2020. United Nations; May 2020. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/covid-19-to-shrink-global-economy-by-32-in-2020-un/1839844.

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