Trade Potential in Arab Nations: The Case of the GCC and PAFTA

Abstract

Abstract We examine trade flows for Arab nations concentrating on the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Pan-Arab Free Trade Area (PAFTA) areas, to identify opportunities to enhance intra-Arab trade and facilitate regional integration. We employ panel data for the years 2003–2017 and a structural gravity model together with an “aggregate” trade potential measure that treats the GCC and PAFTA areas as single countries. Results suggest that, by 2015, intra-area trade had reached maximum capacity for both blocs. Potential to trade also reached capacity with many of the largest Free Trade Areas around the world, however, opportunities for trade expansion that still exist with the MERCOSUR and ASEAN, as well as many distinct destinations, can assist in strategic planning to enhance integration efforts.