Democracy, Corruption and Economic Growth Post-Arab Spring in Tunisia and Libya

Abstract

Abstract This paper uses the synthetic control method to analyze the repercussions of the Arab Spring on the economic growth, corruption levels, and democracy of Tunisia and Libya. The study covered the years 2003–2018, and I utilized panel data from Tunisia, Libya, and 56 developing countries that were unaffected by the Arab revolution. I excluded countries with incomplete data, those directly impacted by the Arab Spring, and countries affected by external shocks like natural disasters or conflicts. All the data used in this analysis was obtained from the World Bank Open Data and the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) project. The findings indicate that the Arab Spring had adverse effects on economic growth in both Tunisia and Libya, in comparison to what would have been expected based on their synthetic control counterparts. On the other hand, the results demonstrate a significant increase in democracy and anti-corruption in both countries following the Arab Spring.