Methods of Event History Analysis in the Assessment of Crisis Impact on Sectors Related with the Real Estate Market in Poland

Abstract

Abstract The subject of the article is the use of methods of event history analysis to assess the fall of prices and the subsequent increase of share prices of companies operating in the construction industry, developers (real estate) and building materials industry compared to other industries. The 328 examined companies were listed on the continuous market and the parallel market on the Stock Exchange in Warsaw. Share prices were observed in the period from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2009 which was based on the earlier observations of stock quotes and the WIG index, the latter reaching its minimum in February 2009. The closing price of a share was taken into account. The 60% decrease and 80% growth in shares prices in particular sectors were analysed. What was assessed was the risk of fall in share prices and their chance for recovery. Additionally, the intensity of the increase of share prices and the probability of failure to reach the limit were examined.