Unbiased estimation of the gradient of the log-likelihood for a class of continuous-time state-space models

Author:

Ballesio Marco1ORCID,Jasra Ajay1ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering Division , King Abdullah University of Science and Technology , Thuwal , 23955 , Saudi Arabia

Abstract

Abstract In this paper, we consider static parameter estimation for a class of continuous-time state-space models. Our goal is to obtain an unbiased estimate of the gradient of the log-likelihood (score function), which is an estimate that is unbiased even if the stochastic processes involved in the model must be discretized in time. To achieve this goal, we apply a doubly randomized scheme, that involves a novel coupled conditional particle filter (CCPF) on the second level of randomization. Our novel estimate helps facilitate the application of gradient-based estimation algorithms, such as stochastic-gradient Langevin descent. We illustrate our methodology in the context of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) in several numerical examples and compare with the Rhee–Glynn estimator.

Publisher

Walter de Gruyter GmbH

Subject

Applied Mathematics,Statistics and Probability

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