Computing sunspot solutions to rational expectations models with timing restrictions

Author:

Sorge Marco M.1ORCID

Affiliation:

1. University of Salerno, University of Göttingen and CSEF , Via Giovanni Paolo II 132 , 84084 Fisciano SA , Italy

Abstract

Abstract Rational expectations (RE) frameworks featuring informational constraints are becoming increasingly popular in macroeconomic research. A recent strand of literature has explored the analytics of RE models with informational subperiods, in which the occurrence of exogenous shocks is period-specific and decision makers condition their own choices and expectations upon a sequence of nested information sets (timing restrictions). Assuming the unrestricted (full information) RE model satisfies saddle-path stability, this paper provides (i) necessary and sufficient conditions for existence of an uncountably infinite set of linearly perturbed solutions to its restricted (informationally constrained) counterpart, and (ii) an algorithm for computing the full set of sunspot solutions when equilibrium indeterminacy occurs.

Publisher

Walter de Gruyter GmbH

Subject

Economics and Econometrics

Reference19 articles.

1. Bacchetta, P., E. Mertens, and E. van Wincoop. 2009. “Predictability in Financial Markets: What do Survey Expectations Tell Us?” Journal of International Money and Finance 28 (3): 406–426.

2. Baxter, B., L. Graham, and S. Wright. 2011. “Invertible and Non-Invertible Information Sets in Linear Rational Expectations Models.” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 35 (3): 295–311.

3. Broze, L., and A. Szafarz. 1991. The Econometric Analysis of Non-Uniqueness in Rational Expectations Models. North-Holland, Amsterdam.

4. Carravetta, F., and M. M. Sorge. 2010. “A ‘Nearly Ideal’ Solution to Linear Time-Varying Rational Expectations Models.” Computational Economics 35 (4): 331–353.

5. Christiano, L. J. 2002. “Solving Dynamic Equilibrium Models by a Method of Undetermined Coefficients.” Computational Economics 20 (1–2): 21–55.

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