Affiliation:
1. Industrial Engineering School , University of Extremadura Avenida de Elvas , Avenida de Elvas, s/n – 06006 , Badajoz , Spain
2. IDMEC, Instituto Superior Técnico , Universidade de Lisboa , Av. Rovisco Pais 1 – 1049-001 , Lisbon , Portugal
Abstract
Abstract
This paper presents models of economic growth for all the countries of the Group of Seven (G7) in the 1973–2016 period. The models consist of differential equations, of both integer and fractional order, where the gross domestic product (GDP) is a function of the country’s land area, arable land, population, school attendance, gross capital formation (GCF), exports of goods and services, general government final consumption expenditure (GGFCE), and broad money (M3). Results show that fractional models have a better performance, measured by several summary statistics, without increasing the number of parameters, or sacrificing the ability to predict GDP evolution in the short term. A standard validation procedure for economic growth models is presented for the assessment of future models.
Subject
Applied Mathematics,Analysis
Reference50 articles.
1. B. Baeumer, M.M. Meerschaert, Fractional diffusion with two time scales. Physica A: Stat. Mech. Appl. 373 (2007), 237–251; 10.1016/j.physa.2006.06.014.
2. J. Blackledge, Application of the fractal market hypothesis for modelling macroeconomic time series. ISAST Trans. Electronics Sig. Proc. 2, No 1 (2008), 89–110; 10.21427/D7091P.
3. J. Blackledge, Application of the fractional diffusion equation for predicting market behaviour. IAENG Int. J. Appl. Math. 40, No 3 (2010), 130–158; 10.21427/D7HK8R.
4. D.E. Bloom, D. Canning, J. Sevilla, Technological diffusion, conditional convergence, and economic growth. Working Paper # 8713, National Bureau of Economic Research (2002), 27 pp.; 10.3386/w8713; Available at: https://www.nber.org/papers/w8713.
5. M. Boleantu, Fractional dynamical systems and applications in economy. Diff. Geom. – Dyn. Syst. 10 (2008), 62–70.
Cited by
28 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献，注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献，订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献