Classification of West German Business Cycles 1955-1994 / Klassifikation westdeutscher Konjunkturzyklen 1955 - 1994

Abstract

Summary This paper applies multivariate linear discriminant analysis to classify West German business cycles from 1955 to 1994 into a four phase scheme (upswing, downswing, and upper/lower turning point phases). It describes the scheme as well as the selection of the classifying variables, and presents classification results for various sample periods confirming the four phase scheme. Special attention is given to changes of the explanatory power of the variables and its implication for changes of cycle patterns. While for the 1963/94 period the results display all in all much stability, the 1955/62 period does not fit into this pattern, indicating a change of regime which might even reach into the fourth cycle (1963-1967).