A Tripolar Model of Gas Price Formation in Germany. Does the Shale Revolution in the US Matter?-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

A Tripolar Model of Gas Price Formation in Germany. Does the Shale Revolution in the US Matter?

Published:2022-08-01 Issue:4 Volume:242 Page:501-520
ISSN:0021-4027
Container-title:Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik
language:en
Short-container-title:

Author:

Moenke Anna¹^ORCID,Welfe Aleksander²^ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Warsaw School of Economics , Al. Niepodleglosci 162, 02-554 Warszawa , Poland

2. Chair of Econometric Models and Forecasts , University of Lodz , 37/39 Rewolucji 1905r., 90-214 Łódź , Poland

Abstract

Abstract Presented analysis of gas price formation mechanism in Germany was prompted by changes brought about by technological advancements and the liberalization and harmonization of natural gas markets in the European Union after the year 2000. Because the data used in the study is generated by nonstationary stochastic processes, the cointegrated vector autoregressive model was applied as the most appropriate. The analysis pointed out that the price of natural gas, oil and the USD/EUR exchange rate influence each other in the long run and thus should be modelled together. Gas price in Germany is driven by both fundamental and financial factors, and so it rises with economic expansion, oil price increases, and the depreciation of the USD. It also reacts to changes in short-term interest rates and the volume of gas production in the US, which confirms that the shale revolution in this country has been consequential for gas prices in Europe, like any other supply shock would have been.

Funder

Narodowe Centrum Nauki

Publisher

Walter de Gruyter GmbH

Subject

Economics and Econometrics,Social Sciences (miscellaneous),General Business, Management and Accounting

Link

https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.1515/jbnst-2022-0002/pdf

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