Legislative Term Limits and Government Spending: Theory and Evidence from the United States

Author:

Asako Yasushi,Matsubayashi Tetsuya,Ueda Michiko

Abstract

Abstract What are the fiscal consequences of legislative term limits? To answer this question, we first develop a legislative bargaining model that describes negotiations over the allocation of distributive projects among legislators with different levels of seniority. Building on several predictions from the model, we develop two hypotheses for empirical testing. First, the adoption of term limits that results in a larger reduction in the variance of seniority within a legislature increases the amount of government spending. Second, legislatures that adopt stricter term limits increase the amount of government spending, while legislatures that adopt moderate term limits show no change in the amount. We provide evidence for these hypotheses using panel data for 49 US state legislatures between 1980 and 2010.

Publisher

Walter de Gruyter GmbH

Subject

Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous),Economics and Econometrics

Reference56 articles.

1. “Legislative Term Limits and State Spending.”;Public Choice,2007

2. “How Elections Matter: Theory and Evidence From Environmental Policy.”;Quarterly Journal of Economics,2006

3. “A Positive Theory of Fiscal Deficits and Government Debt.”;Review of Economic Studies,1990

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