Predicting total electron content in ionosphere using vector autoregression model during geomagnetic storm

Abstract

Abstract The ionospheric total electron content (TEC) severely impacts the positional accuracy of a single frequency Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver at the equatorial latitudes. The ionosphere causes a frequency-dependent group delay in the GPS-ranging signals, which reduces the receiver’s accuracy. Further, the variations in TEC due to various space weather phenomena make the ionosphere’s behaviour nonhomogeneous and complex. Hence, developing an accurate forecast model that can track the dynamic behaviour of the ionosphere remains a challenge. However, advances in emerging data-driven algorithms have been found helpful in tracking non-stationary behavior in TEC. These models help forecast the delays in advance. The multivariate Vector Autoregression model (VAR) predicts the Ionospheric TEC in the proposed model. The prediction model uses input data compiled in real-time from the lag values of incoming TEC data and features extracted from TEC. The TEC is predicted in real-time and tested for different prediction intervals. The metrics – Mean Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) are used for testing and validating the accuracy of the model statistically. Testing the predicted output accuracy is also done with the dynamic time warping (DTW) algorithm by comparing it with the actual value obtained from the dual-frequency receiver. The model is tested for storm days of the year 2015 for Bangalore and Hyderabad stations and found to be reliable and accurate. A prediction interval of twenty-minute shows the highest accuracy with an error within 10 TECU for all the storm days.