Prediction of encephalopathy in perinatal asphyxia score: reaching the unreached

Abstract

Abstract Objectives Neonates who develop moderate to severe encephalopathy following perinatal asphyxia will benefit from therapeutic hypothermia. Current National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) criteria for identifying encephalopathic neonates needing therapeutic hypothermia has high specificity. This results in correctly identifying neonates who have already developed moderate to severe encephalopathy but miss out many potential beneficiaries who progress to develop moderate to severe encephalopathy later. The need is therefore not just to diagnose encephalopathy, but to predict development of encephalopathy and extend the therapeutic benefit for all eligible neonates. The primary objective of the study was to develop and validate the statistical model for prediction of moderate to severe encephalopathy following perinatal asphyxia and compare with current NICHD criteria. Methods The study was designed as prospective observational study. It was carried out in a single center Level 3 perinatal unit in India. Neonates>35 weeks of gestation and requiring resuscitation at birth were included. Levels of resuscitation and blood gas lactate were used to determine the pre-test probability, Thompson score between 3 and 5 h of life was used to determine post-test probability of developing encephalopathy. Primary outcome measure: Validation of Prediction of Encephalopathy in Perinatal Asphyxia (PEPA) score by Holdout method. Results A total of 55 babies were included in the study. The PEPA score was validated by Holdout method where the fitted receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) area for the training and test sample were comparable (p=0.758). The sensitivity and specificity of various PEPA scores for prediction of encephalopathy ranged between 74 and 100% in contrast to NICHD criteria which was 42%. PEPA score of 30 had a best combination of sensitivity and specificity of 95 and 89% respectively. Conclusions PEPA score has a higher sensitivity than NICHD criteria for prediction of Encephalopathy in asphyxiated neonates.