Bayesian estimation of in-game home team win probability for college basketball-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Bayesian estimation of in-game home team win probability for college basketball

Published:2022-09-01 Issue:3 Volume:18 Page:201-213
ISSN:2194-6388
Container-title:Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports
language:en
Short-container-title:

Author:

Maddox Jason T.¹,Sides Ryan²,Harvill Jane L.³^ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Sport Management , Syracuse University , Syracuse , NY , USA

2. Mathematics and Computer Science , Texas Woman’s University , Denton , TX , USA

3. Statistical Science , Baylor University , Waco , TX , USA

Abstract

Abstract Two new Bayesian methods for estimating and predicting in-game home team win probabilities in Division I NCAA men’s college basketball are proposed. The first method has a prior that adjusts as a function of lead differential and time elapsed. The second is an adjusted version of the first, where the adjustment is a linear combination of the Bayesian estimator with a time-weighted pregame win probability. The proposed methods are compared to existing methods, showing the new methods are competitive with or outperform existing methods for both estimation and prediction. The utility is illustrated via an application to the 2012/2013 through the 2019/2020 NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball seasons.

Publisher

Walter de Gruyter GmbH

Subject

Decision Sciences (miscellaneous),Social Sciences (miscellaneous)

Link

https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.1515/jqas-2021-0086/pdf

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