Attribution identification of terrestrial ecosystem evolution in the Yellow River Basin

Abstract

Abstract The aim of this study was to identify the impacts of different driving factors on terrestrial ecosystem evolution. The Yellow River Basin was selected as the study area, of which terrestrial ecosystem was deeply affected by climatic change and human activities. We constructed four scenarios (including without any impacts, affected by climate change, by human activities and by both impacts), and the discrepancies between them reflected the impacts of climate change or human activities. Based on this, the future land use simulation model was used to simulate the land use distribution under the four scenarios, and then, the ecosystem services values (ESV) and landscape patterns index were evaluated. The results indicated that affected by climate change during 1995–2015, the Mean Patch Area of the forestland decreased by 0.19% and the landscape patterns became fragmented. Meanwhile, the total ESV decreased by 0.03 billion dollars and the ecosystem regulation services were weakened. Under the influences of human activities, the Contagion index decreased by 1.71% and the landscape patterns became dispersed. Simultaneously, the total ESV increased by 0.56 billion dollars, but the function tends to be unitary. In addition, these effects showed great spatial heterogeneity. This study provides scientific support for ecological protection in the Yellow River Basin.