DO seniors and IMGs have lower match probabilities than MD seniors after adjusting for specialty choice and USMLE Step 1 score

Abstract

Abstract Context It is unknown if US residency applicants of different educational backgrounds (US allopathic [MD], Doctor of Osteopathic Medicine [DO], and international medical graduates [IMG]) but comparable academic performance have similar match success. Objectives Our objective was to compare match probabilities between applicant types after adjusting for specialty choice and United States Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) Step 1 scores. Methods We performed a secondary analysis of published data in National Resident Matching Program (NRMP) reports from 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022 for US MD seniors, DO seniors, and IMGs (US citizens and non-US citizens). We examined the 10 specialties with the most available spots in 2022. Average marginal effects from a multiple variable logistic regression model were utilized to estimate each non-MD senior applicant type’s probability of matching into their preferred specialty compared to MD seniors adjusting for specialty choice, Step 1 score, and match year. Results Each non-MD applicant type had a lower adjusted percent difference in matching to their preferred specialty than MD seniors, −7.1 % (95 % confidence interval [CI], −11.3 to −2.9) for DO seniors, −45.6 % (−50.6 to −40.5) for US IMGs, and −56.6 % (−61.5 to −51.6) for non-US IMGs. Similarly, each non-MD applicant type had a lower adjusted percent difference in matching than MD seniors across almost all Step 1 score ranges, except for DO seniors with Step 1 scores <200 (−2.0 % [−9.5 to 5.5]). Conclusions After adjusting for specialty choice, Step 1 score, and match year, non-US MD applicants had lower probabilities of matching into their preferred specialties than their US MD colleagues.