State of Knowledge of Economic Value of Current and Improved Hurricane Forecasts

Abstract

AbstractThis paper surveys the literature on the value of current and potentially improved hurricane forecasts from the National Hurricane Center. Research on the societal impacts of hurricanes demonstrates that forecasts are likely generating substantial benefits to society in a variety of uses, including saving lives in the U. S. and across the Carribean and Eastern Pacific, reducing the cost of evacuations, improving supply chain management, and in the transportation and energy production and distribution sectors. The existing literature, however, fails generally to quantify the benefits with rigor sufficient for an academic quality benefit-cost analysis of hurricane forecasts. The paper offers several suggestions for future research to more precisely estimate the benefits attributable to current or improved forecasts.