OECD Ülkeleri Örneğinde Türkiye’nin İhracat Analizi: 1982Q1 ve 2021Q1

Abstract

International economics is a field that primarily examines the liberalization of trade and its impact on a country’s gross domestic product (GDP). The trade policies in the World economy, specifically Türkiye as a developing economy, have experienced different cycles since the 1980s, and Türkiye has been following liberal trade policies in an attempt to overcome instabilities in its economy since 24 January 1980. In particular, the long-term, including, the 1994, 2001, 2018 currency crises in Türkiye, the 1997 Asia, the 2007-2009 global financial crisis, and the 2020-2022 Covid 19 global recession, further increases significance of the analysis. This article specifically explores the effects of neo-liberal trade policies on Türkiye and its primary export market, the OECD countries. In particular, the impact of changes in the OECD Countries’ GDP on Turkish exports is analyzed in relation to the Terms of Trade (TOT) and foreign exchange (FX) volatility of the Turkish Lira through Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method. The results reveal that Türkiye’s exports follow a statistically significant correlation with OECD’s GDP and FX volatility but not with the TOT for the period between 1982Q1 to 2021Q1. However, the lagged variables evaluated by the ADRL method indicate that five periods of lagging Turkish exports have a statistically significant relationship with two periods of lagging GDP of OECD, and one period of lagging FX, as well as with one period of lagging TOT. This article also offers valuable insights into the impact of exceptional events like COVID-19 pandemic on national economies, thus findings presented in this paper can help governments and policy makers predict potential implications of other extraordinary circumstances or global disasters and make informed decisions to mitigate their impact on the national economy. This is a long term analysis of neoliberal FX policies applied in Türkiye.