Design of a Total Revenue Forecasting Tool to Estimate the Economic Output of Hardwood Logs

Abstract

Abstract This article introduces a total revenue forecasting tool designed for calculating the economic output of visually graded hardwood lumber. The tool integrates Monte Carlo simulation from previous studies' data, providing a pseudoestimation of total board-feet based on log grades. The lumber output from different log groups is modeled using probability distributions for each lumber grade. The estimated volume output is multiplied by the respective price for each grade, leading to an expected amount of economic output for given log-grades. The tool was implemented using Microsoft Excel 2016 and Visual Basic. This work provides hardwood lumber producers with a valuable and simple tool to determine different scenarios of total income from each log, as established by the user with a statistical perspective. This total revenue forecasting tool provides the industry with a way to reduce waste and estimate their potential revenue by maximizing the interaction between the log yield's variables and providing the economic output of log, leading to an improvement of the economy of the hardwood market.