EXPORT DEPENDENCE ON IMPORT IN THE MACHINERY INDUSTRY: ANALYSIS WITH OPTIMIZED GSR METHOD

Abstract

In the 1980s, Turkey adopted the export-based economic models of developing countries and aimed to reach the level of developed countries. The government adopted various strategies to improve exports, and focused on increasing exports by removing import restrictions. Significant developments have been experienced in foreign trade since the 1990s and this increase continued in the 2000s. However, the data obtained showed that the increase in imports was consistently higher than the increase in exports. One of the reasons for this situation is that the import of capital and intermediate products is a critical factor in production in the Turkish economy. The main purpose of this study is to provide an estimation of the amount of imported capital used in production and also in the machinery industry while reaching a targeted export figure in the machinery industry in Turkey. For this purpose, compressor export data of the countries that export the most compressors in the world, import data of welding machines used in compressor production and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data were obtained. In order to obtain the best estimation result in the analysis made in the Matlab application, all the regression analysis methods in the application were applied on the data. As a result of the analysis, it was determined that the best and most significant result for MSE, RMSE, MAE and R2 values was obtained with the optimized GSR method. In the optimized GSR method, while the lowest values in error margin were obtained with 0.160, 0.400, 0.283 for MSE, RMSE, MAE, it was determined that the highest R2 value was obtained with 0.87. By using the function of the model in the optimized GSR method, it has been determined what the amount of imported welding machine used in compressor production should be for the compressor export of $ 200.000.000 in Turkey. The estimation data obtained also supports the accuracy of the R2 value of 0.87 provided by the optimized GSR method.