Türkiye’de Bölgesel Kayıt Dışı İstihdam ve Makroekonomik Değişkenler Arasındaki Karşılıklı Dinamik İlişkiler: Bir Panel VAR Analizi

Abstract

The presence of the informal economy and unregistered employment engenders adverse working conditions and job insecurity and diminishes tax revenues. Post-2000, Türkiye has placed considerable emphasis on fighting the informal economy and unregistered employment. Nevertheless, current data from the Social Security Institution reveals a 29% unregistered employment rate. Numerous factors affect the informal economy, with their impact contingent on the developmental status of economies. In Türkiye, characterized by substantial regional disparities, policymakers must account for regional heterogeneities. Within this context, an examination of the dynamic relationship between unregistered employment and key economic indicators such as growth, unemployment, and inflation in the Turkish economy is conducted using a homogeneous panel VAR model. Moreover, the study delves into gender-specific distinctions in unemployment rates and their relationship with unregistered employment. Utilizing annual data spanning 2009 to 2021 from NUTS 2 of TURKSTAT, the findings underscore the necessity for unregistered employment policies to address regional variations. Significantly, the interdependence between registered and unregistered economies underscores the guiding role of the unregistered sector within the registered economy. Hence, it is suggested that fighting unregistered employment may require a fundamental redesign of the current economic production structure to mitigate its prevalence.