An Econometric Model of Migration Between US Metropolitan Areas

Abstract

We test a model of inter-metropolitan migration using 1965-70 data for 284 metropolitan areas from the 1970 Census of Population. Innovations in model specification permit us to derive estimatable equations for gross in- and out-migration from a point-to-point hypothesis. Measures of economic conditions (the unemployment rate, the growth rate in employment, and the wage rate) are shown to affect migration behaviour both at origins and destinations, as economic theory predicts. Expected effects of past migration on both subsequent in-migration and out-migration are confirmed. In addition, migrants are shown to prefer destination cities that have moderate climates, that are relatively small in size, and that are close to larger cities. The research reported in this paper is part of a larger study of the joint determination of growth in employment in US metropolitan areas and of migration flows between them.