Modelling the Residential Sub-market: Breaking the Monocentric Mould

Abstract

This paper evaluates the performance of a land-rent model which predicts the residential location pattern in a metropolitan centre when suburban land constraints and a polycentric form are incorporated in the household location decision. The model is based on the variables of residential space, accessibility and income and tests different measures for each. Based on different combinations of measures, iterations of the model predict theoretical incomes. These values are compared to actual data over the full study area and by socioeconomic sector. The goodness of fit and the applicability of the measures are assessed using weighted least-squares multiple regression and cluster analysis. Overall, the model performs quite strongly.