Financial risk analysis with uncertainties of phosphate ore beneficiation

Abstract

In this paper, the net present value (NPV) of a phosphate ore beneficiation flowsheet is analysed under appropriate technical-economic conditions, considering all related uncertainties, using a new Economic Mine Value (EMV) dynamic model to assess the feasibility of the flowsheet. The stochastic NPV of the dynamic model showed that the project is 53.3% more economically viable than the static deterministic NPV. Risk analysis showed that the net present value-at-risk (NPVaR) is likely to achieve a value less than zero, with a 4.7% chance of incurring a financial loss. In addition, sensitivity analysis ranked the model variables according to their impact on the stochastic NPV. The NPV was optimized by adjusting the capacity and capital costs (CAPEX) as decision variables, imposing the price as a model constraint, and using a NPVaR of 1% to maximize NPV. The EMV model is a universal model that can be applied to various mineral deposits.