Mathematical Models of the Complete Course of HIV Infection and AIDS

Abstract

Mathematical models of HIV infection are important to our understanding of AIDS. However, most models do not predict both the decrease in CD4+ T cells and the increase in viral load seen over the course of infection. By including terms for continuous loss of CD4+ T cells and incorporating alteration in viral clearance and viral production, two new models have been created that accurately predict the dynamics of the disease. The first model is a clearance rate reduction model and is based on a 10% per year decrease in both viral clearance and CD4+ T cell levels. A macrophage reservoir model incorporating the observation that macrophage viral production increases up to 1000 fold in the presence of opportunistic infections that become increasingly common as disease progresses. Both viral clearance and macrophage reservoir models predict the expected decrease in T cell levels and rise in viral load observed at the onset of AIDS.