1. According to Nassim Taleb,The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable(New York: Random House, 2010), a Black Swan is an event, positive or negative, that is deemed improbable yet has massive consequences. Taleb shows that Black Swan events explain almost everything about our world, and yet we—especially the experts—are blind to them.
2. Sherman Kent,Strategic Intelligence for American World Policy(Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1949), p. ix.
3. Roy Godson,Intelligence Requirements for the 1980's: Counter Intelligence(New Brunswick, NJ: National Strategy Information Center, Transaction Books, 1980, pp. 13–30.
4. The Intelligence War on Terrorism