1. According to Italian criminologist Enrico Ferri's theory on the “law of saturation” (ENRICO FERRI, CRIMINAL SOCIOLOGY 56–57, there are social consequences when crime rates deviate from ideal levels in either direction. (seeWANG MINGLIANG (汪明亮), RATIONAL COMMENTS ON THE CRIMINAL POLICY OF “HARD-STRIKING” ((“严打”的理性评价), at 86–89.
2. All original public data used in this paper, unless otherwise noted, are from theLaw Yearbook of China(中国法律年鉴), published by the Press of the Law Yearbook.
3. SeeThe Judgment of Criminal Sentence of Intermediate People'sCourt of Guangzhou (广州市中级人民法院刑事判决书) (2008), huizhongfaxingerchongzi (穗中法刑二重字第2 号刑事判决书) No.2.
4. In theXu TingATM theft case, for example, an ATM allowed Xu Ting to withdraw 1,000 yuan ($144) when his account held only 1 yuan. Apparently, something had gone wrong with the ATM.
5. In recent years, some criminologists (especially those in the West) proposed a historical theory to explain the variation of crime rates. The theory says that the fluctuation of crime rate is nonlinear, uncertain and unpredictable. McDowall and Loftin (2005) conducted a statistical analysis of the U.S. crime rate to test this theory. Results showed that there was insufficient evidence to support it. However, research did yield sufficient evidence to support the traditional crime rate theory, i.e., that crime rates are pattern-based and predictable. (seeDAVID MCDOWALL & COLIN LOFTIN,Are U.S. Crime Rate Trends Historically Contingent? 42JOURNAL OF RESEARCH IN CRIME AND DELINQUENCY 359 (2005).