Modeling of Influence of Climate Change Character on the Territory of the Cryolithozone on the Value of Risks for the Road Network

Abstract

The level of climate risks is proposed to be estimated by the amount of thawing soil settlement in the formation of automobile roads, corresponding to the accepted scenario of the climate change. An updated algorithm is presented, according to which the average risk assessment for a 4-year period is divided into a risk assessment for individual years. Calculations performed for the climatic conditions of Yakutsk and Urengoy establish a significant dependence of the predicted risk on the warming pattern. The level of risk predicted when the average annual air temperature increases by 2 degrees is estimated as average (up to 526 points on a 1000-point scale). The most appropriate method of reducing this risk is to perform timely repairs to bring the road to the standard technical and operational condition without the use of special technologies for regulating the temperature regime of soil.