The Annexation of Crimea and Türkiye's Balancing Role in the Russia-Ukraine War

Abstract

Russia's dominance in the Black Sea has diminished since the post-Soviet era. As a result, feeling threatened by the increasing influence of other countries in the region and NATO's advances toward the Black Sea, Russia has created specific problems and crises in the area. Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 to further enhance its dominance in the Black Sea and subsequently declared war on Ukraine in 2022. In response, Western states severed ties with Russia and imposed various sanctions. Türkiye adopted a neutral stance. Simultaneously, while supporting Ukraine, it maintained its relations with Russia and displayed a cooperative approach. The aim of this article is to elucidate the balancing role assumed by Türkiye in the Crimea annexation and the Ukraine war. The article analyzes whether Türkiye, according to Morton A. Kaplan's balance of power theory, acts as a balancing power in the Black Sea.