1. Harvard Business School, Rock Center 212, Boston, MA 02163 and National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) (e-mail: )
2. The Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, The Johns Hopkins University, 1717 Massachusetts Ave NW, Suite 708, Washington, DC 20036 (e-mail: )
3. Monetary and Capital Markets Department, International Monetary Fund, 700 19th Street NW, Washington, DC 20431 (e-mail: ).