Affiliation:
1. Joshua B. Miller is Associate Professor of Economics, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia.
2. Adam Sanjurjo is Associate Professor of Economics, University of Alicante, Spain.
Abstract
We show how classic conditional probability puzzles, such as the Monty Hall problem, are intimately related to the recently discovered hot hand selection bias. We explain the connection by way of the principle of restricted choice, an intuitive inferential rule from the card game bridge, which we show is naturally quantified as the updating factor in the odds form of Bayes’s rule. We illustrate how, just as the experimental subject fails to use available information to update correctly when choosing a door in the Monty Hall problem, researchers may neglect analogous information when designing experiments, analyzing data, and interpreting results.
Publisher
American Economic Association
Subject
Economics and Econometrics,Economics and Econometrics
Cited by
6 articles.
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