An Economist’s Guide to Epidemiology Models of Infectious Disease

Author:

Avery Christopher1,Bossert William2,Clark Adam3,Ellison Glenn4,Ellison Sara Fisher5

Affiliation:

1. Christopher Avery is Roy E. Larsen Professor of Public Policy, Harvard Kennedy School, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

2. William Bossert is David B. Arnold, Jr., Professor of Science, Emeritus, Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

3. Adam Clark is Assistant Professor, Institute of Biology, University of Graz, Graz, Austria.

4. Glenn Ellison is Gregory K. Palm Professor of Economics, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

5. Sara Fisher Ellison is Senior Lecturer in Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

Abstract

We describe the structure and use of epidemiology models of disease transmission, with an emphasis on the susceptible/infected/recovered (SIR) model. We discuss high-profile forecasts of cases and deaths that have been based on these models, what went wrong with the early forecasts, and how they have adapted to the current COVID pandemic. We also offer three distinct areas where economists would be well positioned to contribute to or inform this epidemiology literature: modeling heterogeneity of susceptible populations in various dimensions, accommodating endogeneity of the parameters governing disease spread, and helping to understand the importance of political economy issues in disease suppression.

Publisher

American Economic Association

Subject

Economics and Econometrics,Economics and Econometrics

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