Affiliation:
1. US Census Bureau (email: )
2. University of Maryland (email: )
Abstract
Are business applications early indicators of economic activity? Our analysis indicates that monthly year-over-year growth in applications for likely employer businesses significantly leads growth in total nonfarm employment and has a positive correlation with it. In addition, growth in applications for likely employers leads growth in almost all other monthly Principal Federal Economic Indicators considered. These findings are robust to the inclusion of the COVID-19 pandemic period. Business applications for likely employers appear to be a strong leading indicator of aggregate economic activity.
Publisher
American Economic Association
Reference12 articles.
1. Backus, David K., Bryan R. Routledge, and Stanley E. Zin. 2008. "The Cyclical Component of US Asset Returns." Unpublished.
2. Bayard, Kimberly, Emin Dinlersoz, Timothy Dunne, John Haltiwanger, Javier Miranda, and John Stevens. 2018. "Early-Stage Business Formation: An Analysis of Applications for Employer Identi cation Numbers." NBER Working Paper 24364.
3. Breeden, Douglas T. 2012. "Consumption as a Leading Indicator." Unpublished.
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1 articles.
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