Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural Models

Author:

Coenen Günter1,Erceg Christopher J2,Freedman Charles3,Furceri Davide4,Kumhof Michael5,Lalonde René6,Laxton Douglas7,Lindé Jesper2,Mourougane Annabelle8,Muir Dirk5,Mursula Susanna9,de Resende Carlos6,Roberts John2,Roeger Werner10,Snudden Stephen11,Trabandt Mathias1,in't Veld Jan10

Affiliation:

1. Directorate General Research, ECB, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.

2. Federal Reserve Board, Washington, DC 20551.

3. Department of Economics, Carleton University, 1757 Dunkirk Cres., Ottawa, ON, Canada K1H 5T3.

4. University of Palermo, Viale delle Scienze, 90128, Palermo, Italy.

5. Modeling Unit, Research Department, IMF, Suite 9-548E, 700 19th Street NW, Washington, DC 20431.

6. International Economic Analysis Department, Bank of Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada K1A 0G9.

7. Modeling Unit, Research Department, IMF, Suite 9-548D, 700 19th Street NW, Washington, DC 20431.

8. Economics Department, OECD, 2 rue André-Pascal, 75775 Paris cedex 16, France.

9. Modeling Unit, Research Department, IMF, Suite 9-548B, 700 19th Street NW, Washington, DC 20431.

10. DG ECFIN, European Commission, B-1049 Brussels, Belgium.

11. Modeling Unit, Research Department, IMF, Suite 9-603C, 700 19th Street NW, Washington, DC 20431.

Abstract

The paper subjects seven structural DSGE models, all used heavily by policymaking institutions, to discretionary fiscal stimulus shocks using seven different fiscal instruments, and compares the results to those of two prominent academic DSGE models. There is considerable agreement across models on both the absolute and relative sizes of different types of fiscal multipliers. The size of many multipliers is large, particularly for spending and targeted transfers. Fiscal policy is most effective if it has moderate persistence and if monetary policy is accommodative. Permanently higher spending or deficits imply significantly lower initial multipliers.(JEL E12, E13, E52, E62)

Publisher

American Economic Association

Subject

General Economics, Econometrics and Finance

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