Adaptation to Climate Change: Evidence from US Agriculture

Author:

Burke Marshall1,Emerick Kyle2

Affiliation:

1. Department of Earth System Science, and Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, 473 Via Ortega, Stanford, CA 94305 (e-mail: )

2. Department of Economics, Tufts University, 8 Upper Campus Road, Medford, MA 02155 (e-mail: )

Abstract

Understanding the potential impacts of climate change on economic outcomes requires knowing how agents might adapt to a changing climate. We exploit large variation in recent temperature and precipitation trends to identify adaptation to climate change in US agriculture, and use this information to generate new estimates of the potential impact of future climate change on agricultural outcomes. Longer run adaptations appear to have mitigated less than half—and more likely none—of the large negative short-run impacts of extreme heat on productivity. Limited recent adaptation implies substantial losses under future climate change in the absence of countervailing investments. (JEL Q11, Q15, Q51, Q54)

Publisher

American Economic Association

Subject

General Economics, Econometrics and Finance

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