1. Bank of Italy, Piazza Cavour 6, 40124 Bologna, Italy, and Rimini Center for Economic Analysis (RCEA) (e-mail: )
2. Haas School of Business, University of Califronia, Berkeley, 2200 Piedmont Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94720 (e-mail: )
3. Department of Economics, Trinity College Dublin, College Green, Dublin 2, Ireland (e-mail: )