Greenhouse Gas Reductions under Low Carbon Fuel Standards?

Author:

Holland Stephen P1,Hughes Jonathan E2,Knittel Christopher R3

Affiliation:

1. Department of Economics, University of North Carolina at Greensboro Bryan School of Business and Economics, PO Box 26165, Greensboro, NC 27402-6165, and National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).

2. Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis, One Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616.

3. Department of Economics, University of California, Davis, One Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616 and Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis, University of California Energy Institute, and NBER.

Abstract

A low carbon fuel standard (LCFS) seeks to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by limiting the carbon intensity of fuels. We show this decreases high carbon fuel production but increases low carbon fuel production, possibly increasing net carbon emissions. The LCFS cannot be efficient, and the best LCFS may be nonbinding. We simulate a national LCFS on gasoline and ethanol. For a broad parameter range, emissions decrease, energy prices increase, abatement costs are large ($80–$760 billion annually), and average abatement costs are large ($307–$2,272 per CO2metric ton). A cost effective policy has much lower average abatement costs ($60–$868). (JEL Q54, Q58)

Publisher

American Economic Association

Subject

General Economics, Econometrics and Finance

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