Ambiguity Models and the Machina Paradoxes

Author:

Baillon AurÉlien1,L'Haridon Olivier2,Placido Laetitia3

Affiliation:

1. Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam, PO Box 1738, 3000 DR Rotterdam, The Netherlands.

2. Greg-HEC and IUFM-University Paris Sorbonne, 10 rue Molitor, 75016 Paris, France.

3. Greg-HEC and CNRS, HEC Paris School of Management, 1 rue de la Liberation, 78501 Jouy-en-Josas, France.

Abstract

Machina (2009) introduced two examples that falsify Choquet expected utility, presently one of the most popular models of ambiguity. This article shows that Machina's examples falsify not only the model mentioned, but also four other popular models for ambiguity of the literature, namely maxmin expected utility, variational preferences, α-maxmin, and the smooth model of ambiguity aversion. Thus, Machina's examples pose a challenge to most of the present field of ambiguity. Finally, the paper discusses how an alternative representation of ambiguity-averse preferences works to accommodate the Machina paradoxes and what drives the results. (JEL D81)

Publisher

American Economic Association

Subject

Economics and Econometrics

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