Affiliation:
1. Peterson Institute for International Economics, 1750 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036, NBER, and CEPR.
2. Department of Economics, Harvard University, 1875 Cambridge Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 and NBER.
Abstract
Newly developed historical time series on public debt, along with data on external debts, allow a deeper analysis of the debt cycles underlying serial debt and banking crises. We test three related hypotheses at both “world” aggregate levels and on an individual country basis. First, external debt surges are an antecedent to banking crises. Second, banking crises (domestic and those in financial centers) often precede or accompany sovereign debt crises; we find they help predict them. Third, public borrowing surges ahead of external sovereign default, as governments have “hidden domestic debts” that exceed the better documented levels of external debt. (JEL E44, F34, F44, G01, H63, N20)
Publisher
American Economic Association
Subject
Economics and Econometrics
Cited by
879 articles.
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