Monetary Policy When the Phillips Curve Is Quite Flat

Author:

Beaudry Paul1,Hou Chenyu2,Portier Franck3

Affiliation:

1. Vancouver School of Economics, University of British Columbia (email: )

2. School of Management and Economics, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen (email: )

3. Department of Economics, University College London and CEPR (email: )

Abstract

This paper highlights how the presence of a monetary policy cost channel can offer new insights into the relation between monetary policy and inflation when the Phillips curve is quite flat. For instance, we highlight a key condition whereby lax monetary policy can push the economy to a low-inflation trap, and we discuss how, under the same condition, standard policy rules targeting inflation may need to be modified. In the empirical part of the paper, we explore the relevance of the condition that gives rise to these observations. The results support the key condition we emphasize. (JEL E24, E31, E43, E52)

Publisher

American Economic Association

Subject

General Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Reference49 articles.

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2. Impulse Response Estimation by Smooth Local Projections

3. Identifying Modern Macro Equations with Old Shocks*

4. Barth, Marvin J., and Valerie A. Ramey. 2002. "The Cost Channel of Monetary Transmission." In NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Vol. 16, edited by Ben Bernanke and Kenneth Rogoff, 199-256.

5. Beaudry, Paul, Chenyu Hou, and Franck Portier. 2020. "Monetary Policy when the Phillips Curve is Locally Quite Flat." CEPR Discussion Paper 15184.

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