Sequential Learning

Author:

Antler Yair1,Bird Daniel2,Oliveros Santiago3

Affiliation:

1. Coller School of Management, Tel Aviv University (email: )

2. Eitan Berglas School of Economics, Tel Aviv University (email: )

3. Department of Economics, University of Bristol (email: )

Abstract

We develop a model in which two players sequentially and publicly examine a project. In our model the player who moves first can fabricate evidence to influence the second mover, which creates a moral hazard problem. We find that early strategic uncertainty can mitigate this problem. In particular, for intermediate prior beliefs about the project’s quality, the Pareto-dominant equilibrium is in mixed strategies and consists of an early stage in which evidence may be fabricated and a later stage in which evidence is always authentic. Our findings shed light on the dynamics of R&D, quality assurance, and drug approval. (JEL D82, D83, L15)

Publisher

American Economic Association

Subject

General Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Reference31 articles.

1. Antler, Yair, Daniel Bird, and Santiago Oliveros. 2019. "Sequential Learning." CEPR Discussion Paper 13934.

2. Venture capital financing, moral hazard, and learning

3. Testing, disclosure and approval

4. Collaborating

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