Is the Price Level Determined by the Needs of Fiscal Solvency?

Author:

Canzoneri Matthew B1,Cumby Robert E1,Diba Behzad T1

Affiliation:

1. Department of Economics, Georgetown University, Washington, DC 20057.

Abstract

The fiscal theory of price determination suggests that if primary surpluses evolve independently of government debt, the equilibrium price level “jumps” to assure fiscal solvency. In this non-Ricardian regime, fiscal policy—not monetary policy—provides the nominal anchor. Alternatively, in a Ricardian regime, primary surpluses are expected to respond to debt in a way that assures fiscal solvency, and the price level is determined in conventional ways. This paper argues that Ricardian regimes are as theoretically plausible as non-Ricardian regimes, and provide a more plausible interpretation of certain aspects of the postwar U.S. data than do non-Ricardian regimes. (JEL E60, E63)

Publisher

American Economic Association

Subject

Economics and Econometrics

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