Impacts of Transboundary Crop Diseases on Sustainable Crop Production: The Case of Maize Lethal Necrosis (MLN) in Africa

Abstract

AbstractMore than half of the world’s population relies on wheat, maize, and rice for their daily dietary energy. In 2019, the daily per person average calorie intake was 2,963 kilocalories (kcal), in which the share was more than 18.2% (538 kcal) for wheat, 5.4% (159 kcal) for maize, and 18.3% (542 kcal) for rice. It is projected that by 2050, the total global population is expected to reach between 8.9 and 10.6 billion from 7.8 billion in 2020. Thus, it will be imperative to produce more wheat, maize, and rice to ensure the food security of the world’s burgeoning population. While it is imperative to produce more food, the emergence and re-emergence of lethal crop diseases and their spread from the epicenters to new regions continuously threaten crop yield, farmers’ income, and the world’s food security. For example, the emergence of maize lethal necrosis (MLN) in Africa has generated a credible threat to global and African food security. This study quantified MLN-induced maize production loss in Kenya, DR Congo, and Tanzania. Applying the time-series projection method, this study estimates that the loss in maize production due to MLN was 442 thousand tons in Kenya, nearly 12 thousand tons in DR Congo, and 663 thousand tons in Tanzania. As more pest- and disease-related crop losses are expected due to the changes in global climate, this study concludes by suggesting that it is imperative to invest more in research and development of disease-resistant crop varieties globally to ensure food and nutrition security, particularly in the global south.