Development of a nomogram predicting the probability of stone free rate in patients with ureteral stones eligible for semi-rigid primary laser uretero-litothripsy

Abstract

Abstract Purpose Few tools are available to predict uretero-lithotripsy outcomes in patients with ureteral stones. Aim of our study was to develop a nomogram predicting the probability of stone free rate in patients undergoing semi-rigid uretero-lithotripsy (ULT) for ureteral stones. Methods From January 2014 onwards, patients undergoing semi-rigid Ho: YAG laser uretero-lithotripsy for ureteral stones were prospectively enrolled in two centers. Patients were preoperatively evaluated with accurate clinical history, urinalysis and renal function. Non-contrast CT was used to define number, location and length of the stones and eventually the presence of hydronephrosis. A nomogram was generated based on the logistic regression model used to predict ULT success. Results Overall, 356 patients with mean age of 54 years (IQR 44/65) were enrolled. 285/356 (80%) patients were stone free at 1 month. On multivariate analysis single stone (OR 1.93, 95% CI 1.05–3.53, p = 0.034), stone size (OR 0.92, 95% CI 0.87–0.97, p = 0.005), distal position (OR 2.12, 95% CI 1.29–3.48, p = 0.003) and the absence of hydronephrosis (OR 2.02, 95% CI 1.08–3.78, p = 0.029) were predictors of success and these were used to develop a nomogram. The nomogram based on the model presented good discrimination (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.75), good calibration (Hosmer–Lemeshow test, p > 0.5) and a net benefit in the range of probabilities between 15 and 65%. Internal validation resulted in an AUC of 0.74. Conclusions The implementation of our nomogram could better council patients before treatment and could be used to identify patients at risk of failure. External validation is warranted before its clinical implementation.