The prediction of postoperative delirium with the preoperative bispectral index in older aged patients: a cohort study

Abstract

Abstract Background Postoperative delirium (POD) is the most common postoperative complication in elderly patients, especially in older aged patients (aged 75 years or over). The development of electroencephalography analysis could provide indicators for early detection, intervention, and evaluation. If there are pathophysiological changes in the brain, the BIS value will also change accordingly. In this study, we investigated the predictive value of the preoperative bispectral (BIS) index in POD for patients aged over 75 years. Methods In this prospective study, patients (≥ 75 years) undergoing elective non-neurosurgery and non-cardiac surgery under general anesthesia were included (n = 308). Informed consent was obtained from all involved patients. Before the operation and during the first 5 postoperative days, delirium was assessed with the confusion assessment method by trained researchers twice every day. Thereafter, the preoperative bedside BIS of each patient was dynamically acquired by the BIS VISTA monitoring system and the BIS monitoring of electrodes. A series of evaluation scales were assessed before and after surgery. A preoperative predictive score was generated according to the results of multivariable logistic regression. The receiver operating characteristic curves were drawn and the area under the curves was estimated to evaluate the perioperative diagnostic values of BIS and preoperative predictive score for POD. The specificity, sensitivity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive (NPV) value were calculated. Results Delirium occurred in 50 of 308 (16.2%) patients. The median BIS of delirious patients was 86.7 (interquartile range [IQR] 80.0–94.0), lower than that of the non-delirious 91.9 (IQR 89.7–95.4, P < 0.001). According to the ROC curve of the BIS index, the optimal cut-off value was 84, with a sensitivity of 48%, specificity of 87%, PPV 43%, NPV 89% for forecasting POD and the area under curves was 0.67. While integrating BIS, mini-mental state examination, anemia, activities of daily living, and blood urea nitrogen, the model had a sensitivity of 78%, specificity of 74%, PPV of 0.37%, and NPV of 95% for forecasting POD, and the area under curves was 0.83. Conclusions Preoperative bedside BIS in delirium patients was lower than that in non-delirium patients when undergoing non-neurosurgery and non-cardiac surgery in patients aged over 75. The model of integrating BIS, mini-mental state examination, anemia, activities of daily living, and blood urea nitrogen is a promising tool for predicting postoperative delirium in patients aged over 75.