Author:
Jordan A. Rainer,Stark H.,Nitschke I.,Micheelis W.,Schwendicke F.
Abstract
Abstract
Objective
This is the first part of a report on tooth loss in Germany 1997–2030. Here, we describe trends in the prevalence of tooth loss in adults and seniors 1997–2014, assess predictive factors for tooth loss and projected it into 2030.
Material and methods
Data of the cross-sectional, multi-center, nationally representative German Oral Health Studies of 1997, 2005, and 2014 were used. Age, sex, educational level, smoking status, and the cohort were used for ordinary least square regression to assess the association of predictors with tooth loss (missing teeth, MT). The yielded regression coefficients were used to predict tooth loss in 2030.
Results
Compared with 1997, the mean MT in adults (35–44 years old) in 2030 was predicted to decrease by two-thirds to 1.3. The prevalence of tooth loss (MT > 0) will decrease by 72% from 1997 to 2030. In 2030, half of the population of adults will not exhibit any tooth loss. Compared with 1997, the mean MT among seniors (65–74 years old) will decline to 5.6 teeth (i. e. two-thirds reduction) until 2030. Prevalence of tooth loss will be halved by 2030, and approximately one-third of this age group will not exhibit any tooth loss.
Conclusions
Based on the model used, the trend of a robust decline in tooth loss will become more dynamic by the year 2030. As a result, every second adult will have experienced no tooth loss at all in 2030, and seniors will possess more teeth than they have previously lost.
Clinical relevance
This study presents the trends of tooth loss in Germany for a period of three decades. It provides clinically relevant data for health care planning by 2030.
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Reference27 articles.
1. Marcenes W, Kassebaum NJ, Bernabé E, Flaxman A, Naghavi M, Lopez A et al (2013) Global burden of oral conditions in 1990-2010: a systematic analysis. J Dent Res 92(7):592–597
2. Schiffner U, Hoffmann T, Kerschbaum T, Micheelis W (2009) Oral health in German children, adolescents, adults and senior citizens in 2005. Community Dent Health 26(1):18–22
3. Schwendicke F, Krois J, Kocher T, Hoffmann T, Micheelis W, Jordan AR (2018) More teeth in more elderly: periodontal treatment needs in Germany 1997-2030. J Clin Periodontol 45(12):1400–1407
4. Fries JF (1980) Aging, natural death, and the compression of morbidity. N Engl J Med 303(3):130–135
5. Saekel R (2016) New analytical tools for evaluating dental care systems - results for Germany and selected highly developed countries. Chin J Dent Res 19(2):77–88
Cited by
13 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献