Conducting volcanic ash cloud exercises: practising forecast evaluation procedures and the pull-through of scientific advice to the London VAAC

Abstract

AbstractThe London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC) provides forecasts on the expected presence of volcanic ash in the atmosphere to mitigate the risk to aviation. It is fundamentally important that operational capability is regularly tested through exercises, to guarantee an effective response to an event. We have developed exercises which practise the pull-through of scientific advice into the London VAAC, the forecast evaluation process, and the decision-making procedures and discussions needed for generating the best possible forecasts under real-time conditions. London VAAC dispersion model forecasts are evaluated against observations. To test this capability in an exercise, we must create observation data for a hypothetical event. We have developed new methodologies for generating and using simulated satellite and lidar retrievals. These simulated observations enable us to practise our ability to interpret, compare, and evaluate model output and observation data under real-time conditions. Forecast evaluation can benefit from an understanding of how different choices of model setup (input parameters), model physics, and driving meteorological data impact the predicted extent and concentration of ash. Through our exercises, we have practised comparing output from model simulations generated using different models, model setups, and meteorological data, supplied by different institutions. Our exercises also practise the communication and interaction between Met Office (UK) scientists supporting the London VAAC and external experts, enabling knowledge exchange and discussions on the interpretation of model output and observations, as we strive to deliver the best response capability for the aviation industry and stakeholders. In this paper, we outline our exercise methodology, including the use of simulated satellite and lidar observations, and the development of the strategy to compare output generated from different modelling systems. We outline the lessons learnt, including the benefits and challenges of conducting exercises which practise our ability to provide scientific advice for an operational response at the London VAAC.