Delay in childbearing and the evolution of fertility rates

Abstract

AbstractWe present a growth model whose novelty is to explicitly account for the direct, preference-related factors that reinforce the delay in the timing of childbearing. Given the strength of these factors, the model generates the empirically observed dynamics in completed cohort fertility. Furthermore, the quantitative analysis of our results verifies that our model provides a good fit for actual data of the rebound of the completed cohort fertility rates in Nordic countries. The fact that these countries are widely considered as the most progressive ones, in terms of their cultural norms and in terms of their family-oriented policies, offers credence to the hypothesis that our model advances. More generally, our framework provides a platform for research that can uncover empirically relevant, but yet unexplored, mechanisms in the joint analysis of demographic change and economic growth.