A practical nomogram and risk stratification system for predicting survival outcomes in neuroblastoma patients: a SEER population-based study

Abstract

Abstract Background Neuroblastoma (NB) is a childhood malignancy with marked heterogeneity, resulting in highly variable outcomes among patients. This study aims to establish a novel nomogram and risk stratification system to predict the overall survival (OS) for patients with NB. Methods We analyzed neuroblastoma patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 2004 and 2015. The nomogram was constructed using independent risk factors for OS, identified through univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. The accuracy of this nomogram was evaluated with the concordance index, receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis. In addition, we developed a risk stratification system based on the total score of each patient in the nomogram. Results A total of 2185 patients were randomly assigned to the training group and the testing group. Six risk factors, including age, chemotherapy, brain metastases, primary site, tumor stage, and tumor size, were identified in the training group. Using these factors, a nomogram was constructed to predict 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS of NB patients. This model exhibited superior accuracy in the training and testing groups, exceeding traditional tumor stage prediction. Subgroup analysis suggested worse prognosis for retroperitoneal origin in the intermediate-risk group and adrenal gland origin in the high-risk group compared to other sites. Additionally, the prognosis for high-risk patients significantly improved after surgery. We also developed a web application to make the nomogram more user-friendly in clinical practices. Conclusion This nomogram demonstrates excellent accuracy and reliability, offering more precise personalized prognostic predictions to clinical patients.