The social drift of trees. Consequence for growth trend detection, stand dynamics, and silviculture

Abstract

AbstractRecently, many studies worldwide tapped tree ring pattern for detection of growth events and trends caused by weather extremes and climate change. As long-term experiments with permanent survey of all trees are rare, growth trend analyses are mostly based on retrospective measurements of growth via increment coring or stem analyses of the remaining individual trees in older forest stands. However, the growth of the survivor trees in older stands may only unsufficiently represent the course of growth of the dominant trees throughout the stand development. Here, the more than 100 years survey data of the European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) thinning experiment Fabrikschleichach in South Germany are used to show the long-term changes in social ranking of trees and their consequences for growth trend detection by retrospective tree ring analyses, for stand dynamics and silvicultural management. Firstly, a significant social upwards drift of initially medium-sized trees till 2010 is shown based on the trees' percentiles in the stem diameter distribution in 1904 versus 2010. The social climbing is stronger on the thinned compared to the unthinned plots. Secondly, we show that 40–60% of the 100 tallest trees in 1904 were replaced by social climbers and down-ranked below the 100 tallest trees till 2010. Linear mixed model analyses reveal that the long-term trend of the diameter growth of the 100 dominant survivors in 2010 was on average by 23% steeper than the trend of the 100 tallest starters in 1904. This indicates that the survivors had a steeper and longer lasting growth than the originally dominant trees. Thirdly, the diameter growth trend in the last 20 years, from 1990 to 2010, is analyzed in dependency on the current and past social position. A linear model shows that early subdominance or suppression can significantly steepen the growth trend a century later and vice versa.Finally, we discuss the implications of the social drift for the survivor-based growth trend analyses, for the stand dynamics, and silvicultural management.